产能过剩 一场席卷全球水泥行业的危机

  The global cement industry today employs 1.2 million people and has production capacity of around 6.2 billion t. However, it suffers from substantial overcapacity issues: it is estimated that current capacity can already fulfil the world’s needs for the next 20 years at least.全球水泥行业目前拥有120万员工，产能约为62亿吨。它正面临着严重的产能过剩问题：据估计，目前的产能至少可以满足未来20年的全球水泥需求。

  Since the turn of the century, driven in large part by China’s domestic boom, global cement capacity has increased exponentially, nearly tripling over the last two decades. Meanwhile, the number of producers has grown to more than 5000.自世纪之交以来，由于中国国内经济的蓬勃发展，全球水泥产能呈指数增长，在过去的二十年中增长了近三倍。同时，生产商的数量已增长到5000多个。

  Although in periods of high demand, this increased capacity could mostly be absorbed, we have seen sluggish demand in recent years, creating global excess capacity, especially in China, Europe, the Eastern Mediterranean, and the Middle East. This is the result of a longer-than-expected global recession following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, combined with major regional political and economic instability: the 2010/11 Eurozone debt crisis, the Arab spring, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, and collapsing commodity prices.尽管在需求旺盛时期，过多的产能大部分可以被吸收，但近年来我们看到需求低迷造成全球产能过剩，特别是在中国、欧洲、东地中海和中东地区。这是由于2008年全球金融危机之后的全球经济衰退超出预期，加上部分地区政治和经济不稳定：2010-2011年度欧元区债务危机，阿拉伯之春，中国经济放缓以及商品价格崩溃。

  This excess capacity and demand shortage have combined to trigger a race to the bottom among cement manufacturers, dragging down prices in domestic and international markets. Low utilisation rates have also pushed up fixed costs per unit, while the hike in coal and petcoke prices towards the end of 2016 put further pressure on margins. As a result, companies have seen a drastic slump in their earnings, with returns just above or even below the cost of capital, with some beginning to burn through cash reserves.产能过剩和需求短缺，引发了水泥生产商之间的竞争，拉低国内和国际市场的价格。低利用率也推高了单位固定成本，而2016年底煤炭和石油焦价格上涨进一步压缩了利润率。结果，水泥企业的收益大幅下滑，收益率刚刚高于，甚至低于资本成本，有些企业开始损耗现金储备。

  Current overcapacity continues to increase and is negatively distorting global cement markets, though the impact does vary across regions. Currently China has the greatest excess capacity with 895 million t, representing 45% of global overcapacity, of which only a fraction is earmarked for export due to higher inland logistics costs. 尽管各地区的产能过剩影响不尽相同，但目前的产能过剩问题日益突出，并对全球水泥市场产生负面影响。现在中国的产能过剩最高，达到了8.95亿吨，占全球产能过剩的45％。并且，由于内陆物流成本较高，中国只有一小部分水泥用于出口。

  Meanwhile, Europe has a capacity-to-consumption ratio of 200%, the highest in the world. In addition to low demand in the region, political pressure to reduce CO2 emissions and CO2 emission allowance programmes have helped keep capacity utilisation rates low.同时，欧洲的产能／消费率达到200％，是世界上最高的。该地区除了低需求外，减少二氧化碳排放量和二氧化碳排放配额计划的政治压力也有助于保持较低的产能利用率。

  Developing regions, such as India, Southeast Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, have seen significant capacity growth over the last decade, representing more than twice the equivalent growth in consumption. Despite a capacity-to-consumption ratio of more than 150% in these regions, further capacity expansion is still anticipated. Southeast Asian (including Indian) manufacturers plan to add more than 100 million t of capacity by 2018, while 50 million t of new capacity is planned for Sub-Sharan Africa, mainly in Tanzania, Kenya, and Nigeria.发展中地区，如印度，东南亚，撒哈拉以南非洲地区和拉丁美洲，在过去十年中，产能也显着增长，为相应消费增长的两倍多。尽管这些地区的产能／消费比例超过150％，但仍有望进一步扩大产能。东南亚（包括印度）制造商计划在2018年增加1亿吨以上的产能，同时计划为撒哈拉以南非洲地区（主要是坦桑尼亚，肯尼亚和尼日利亚）提供5000万吨的新产能。

  Political turmoil and low oil prices over the past three years have severely reduced domestic cement demand in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East, resulting in large excess capacity. The lack of export markets in neighbouring countries across the Eastern Mediterranean region in particular, where Turkey remains a major exporter with 10 million t of export volume, has created a regional exportable surplus.过去三年的政治动荡和低油价严重降低了东地中海和中东地区的国内水泥需求，导致了大量过剩产能。东地中海地区的邻国缺乏出口市场，特别是土耳其仍然是出口量达1000万吨的主要出口国，因此创造了区域性出口盈余。

  Recent project announcements indicate that, in the years ahead, domestic producers in Turkey, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia will expand their operations. This new capacity will be coming online, even as demand remains subdued, contributing to further growth in exportable surplus.最近的项目公告显示，未来几年，土耳其、埃及、伊拉克、伊朗和沙特阿拉伯的国内生产商将扩大业务。由于新增产能正在扩建中，即使需求依然疲弱，这有助于进一步增加可出口的盈余。

  In the long term, current excess capacity in developing regions is expected to shrink to some extent, as demand for urbanisation increases over time. However, mature markets, such as Europe and North America, will continue to struggle with this surplus for some time, even though new capacity growth will be extremely limited.从长远来看，城市化需求随着时间的推移而增加，发展中地区目前的产能过剩预计会有所缩小。 然而，即使新的产能增长极其有限，欧洲和北美等成熟市场仍将继续为这一盈余挣扎一段时间。

  The problem of overcapacity has been experienced by different industries throughout history and still continues to be a crucial threat for many. Notable examples include the UK’s steel industry in the 1980s, the global freight market today, China’s steel industry, the worldwide oil market, airlines, and the fishing industry. In their search for a solution, different industries can learn from one another, though some aspects of the challenge can also be very sector-specific.历史上不同行业都经历过产能过剩的问题，并且仍然是许多行业的重要威胁。值得注意的例子包括英国80年代的钢铁业，当今的全球货运市场，中国的钢铁业，全球的石油市场，航空公司和渔业。在寻找解决方案时，不同的行业可以互相学习。

  Cement, with its cost efficiency, energy efficiency, and very long durability, is a unique product and has no real substitute. Moreover, the industry is very capital intensive, so has a lower ROCE than other industries. It is also highly regional in nature, due to relatively high land-based transportation and distribution costs. Because of this, strategies for the cement sector can differ from other industries.水泥是具有成本效益，能源效率和耐久性的一种独特的产品，并没有真正的替代品。而且，这个行业的资本密集程度非常高，因此比其他行业的ROCE低。相对较高的陆地运输和分销成本，这也是高度区域性的。因此，水泥行业的战略可能与其他行业不同。

  China: an industry leader

  中国：行业领导者

  With a slowdown in China’s economy, the first real attempts to resolve the issue of excess capacity are being put in motion. The Chinese government and China Cement Association have started to encourage companies to cooperate more, in particular through joint investment enterprises, while state-owned enterprises are growing through mergers and acquisitions. Even though a joint investment enterprise might be considered an anti-competitive agreement, Chinese anti-monopoly law allows for such actions under certain circumstances, for example, if the goal is deemed to be in the public interest, such as reducing high levels of emissions.随着中国经济放缓，首次真正尝试解决产能过剩的问题正在展开。中国政府和中国水泥协会已经开始鼓励企业加大合作力度，特别是通过组建联合投资公司的方式进行合作，而国有企业则通过兼并和收购来增长。 虽然联合投资有可能被视为反竞争协议，但中国反垄断法允许在某些情况下采取此类行动，例如，如果目标被视为符合公共利益，如降低高排放水平。

  Additionally, the China Cement Association has recently made a policy recommendation to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to establish a fund, supported by private companies, to speed up consolidation by compensating firms for losses incurred when leaving the industry and closing their production lines.另外，中国水泥协会最近向工业和信息化部提出了一项政策建议，建立一个由私营公司支持的基金，通过补偿企业关闭损失和关闭生产线时遭受的损失来加速合并。

  The national industry target for 2020 is to concentrate at least 60% of Chinese overall capacity into the top 10 manufacturers. This will be followed by a shutdown of idle capacity to ensure efficient resource allocation, and finally a plan to increase utilisation rates to 80% from 68% by reducing 400 million t of capacity. In the long term, once this local consolidation reaches a certain level, Chinese producers are very likely to benefit from a massive increase in cash generation, giving them greater resources to embark on more aggressive overseas expansion.2020年的国家工业目标是将至少60％的中国总产能集中到前10位制造商。随后关闭闲置容量以确保有效的资源分配，最后计划通过减少4亿吨的容量将利用率从68％提高到80％。 从长远来看，一旦这种地方合并达到一定程度，中国生产商很可能从现金增值的大幅增加中获益，从而为他们提供更多资源，以进行更积极的海外扩张。

  While China is taking immediate and drastic measures to optimise production capacity and reduce the environmental exposure of the cement industry, with a view to creating higher profitability and lower emissions, Europe and the Middle East still seem unable to decide upon fast and efficient solutions to implement themselves.中国正在采取紧急措施来优化生产能力并减少水泥行业的环境风险，以期创造更高的盈利能力和更低的排放量，欧洲和中东似乎仍无法决定实施快速有效的解决方案。

  Europe and North America: lagging behind

  欧洲和北美：滞后

  In Europe, the region with the highest capacity-consumption ratio, a recovery in 2018 seems likely, but discussions are still shaky and far from reaching any implementable solution. In the long term, it is however expected that around 200 million t of idle capacity, as well as the number of kilns, will decline considerably thanks to plant shutdowns. Experts predict that, in landlocked areas, only eco-friendly, high-tech, and optimised plants will remain, while coastal areas will meet their needs through grinding mills and clinker imports. Here, the Eastern Mediterranean region could become a main supplier thanks to its large exportable surplus.在欧洲，能源消费比例最高的地区似乎有可能在2018年出现复苏，但仍不稳定，远未达成任何可实施的解决方案。然而，从长远来看，由于工厂关闭，预计约2亿吨的闲置产能和窑炉数量将大幅下降。专家预测，在内陆地区，只有环保，高科技和优化的工厂才会保留，而沿海地区将通过磨矿厂和熟料进口满足他们的需求。在这里，东地中海地区可以成为主要供应商，因为其大量的可出口盈余。

  Nevertheless, this transition and restructuring of the European cement industry will not be easy and happen only as a result of natural market dynamics. In spite of recent consolidations between the cement industry giants, the industry still needs to see some more major M&A transactions.尽管如此，欧洲水泥行业的这种转型和重组并不容易，而这只是自然的市场动态。尽管近期有水泥行业巨头并购案例发生，但行业仍需要看到更多重大并购交易。

  And while the current interventions to combat climate change, covered by the EU’s free CO2 allocation and trading system, are helping control and reduce CO2 emissions, this is also causing a slowdown in the consolidation that will ultimately serve to increase overall production efficiency in the cement industry by creating a windfall gain for small companies. Therefore industry associations, in line with public interest and together with the European Commission, should support the cement industry to undertake the restructuring that is so urgently required.目前由欧盟的免费二氧化碳分配和交易系统支持，针对气候变化的干预措施正在帮助控制和减少二氧化碳排放，但这也会导致整合速度放慢，最终将提高水泥的整体生产效率，为小公司创造意外收益。因此，符合公众利益的行业协会和欧盟委员会应支持水泥行业进行迫切需要的重组。

  The North American countries, mainly the US, have similar problems to Europe, with their spare cement capacity and political pressure for CO2 limitations at state level, though they do not have a country-wide trading system to limit CO2emissions. For the region more generally, greater flexibility on imports, as well as further consolidation, are key areas for improvement. Particularly for the coastal regions, more open international trading can provide significant benefits to the industry.北美洲国家，主要是美国，与欧洲有类似的问题，他们的剩余水泥产能和政府对二氧化碳限制的压力处于州级别，尽管他们没有全国范围的贸易体系来限制二氧化碳排放。更通俗的说，更大程度的进出口灵活性，以及进一步的整合是需要改进的关键领域。特别是对于沿海地区来说，更开放的国际贸易可以为行业带来显着的效益。

  Cement trading: room for improvement

  水泥贸易：可改进的空间

  International cement trading ensures more efficient allocation and better utilisation of global resources, so can be a very useful tool in overcoming the global excess capacity problem. This is particularly important for capital-intensive and highly-localised industries like cement, where regional volatility can have a rapid and significant impact on demand, leaving producers with idle and costly resources that undermine long-term stability.国际水泥贸易能够确保更有效的分配和更好地利用全球资源，因此可以成为解决全球产能过剩问题的非常有用的工具。对于像水泥这样的资本密集型和高度区域化的行业而言，这尤其重要，因为区域波动可能对需求产生快速而重大的影响，导致生产商闲置且耗资巨大，破坏了长期稳定性。

  However, recent protectionist policies, such as non-automatic licenses or tariffs, in many countries have hindered international cement trade, driving global overcapacity up. Today international trade meets only 5% of global cement consumption demand, with a volume of 200 million t. This shows there is plenty of room to improve and, ultimately, a great opportunity to reduce the scale of the overcapacity problem.然而，许多国家最近的保护主义政策（如非自动许可证或关税）阻碍了国际水泥贸易，导致全球产能过剩。 今天，2亿吨的国际贸易仅占全球水泥消费需求的5％， 这表明有很大的提升空间，是减少产能过剩问题规模的绝好机会。

  Conclusion

  结论

  Unfortunately, overcapacity is not yet being treated as a serious issue, though this is likely to change if and when the industry faces a downturn in consumption volumes. Such a scenario could be precipitated by a gradual increase of global interest rates, including the LIBOR and EURIBOR, resulting in a period of stagnation in cement consumption volumes. This in turn might lead to a period of consolidation, where the overcapacity problem could hurt the global players, depending on their financial and geographical exposure.不幸的是，产能过剩尚未被视为一个严重问题，尽管如果行业面临消费量下滑，这种情况可能会改变。全球利率逐步上升，包括伦敦银行同业拆息利率和银行同业拆借利率，导致水泥消费量停滞不前。这反过来又可能导致一段时间的并购重组，其中产能过剩问题可能会损害全球参与者，损害程度取决于他们的财务和地理风险。

  Overcapacity currently represents the biggest challenge for the global cement industry and is a significant issue in many countries. However, right now, it seems that China is the only country fighting against this threat, and has established its own methods for doing so. This issue is particularly acute for mature markets with very low capacity utilisation rates, such as Europe. Despite clear lack of leadership, these countries need to join the fight immediately, taking collective, decisive and effective action to secure a more prosperous and secure cement industry for the long term.目前，产能过剩是全球水泥行业面临的最大挑战，也是许多国家的一个重大问题。但是，现在看来，中国是唯一一个与这种威胁作斗争的国家，并且已经建立了自己的方法。对于欧洲等产能利用率很低的成熟市场来说，这个问题尤其突出。这些国家需要立即参与斗争，采取集体、果断和有效的行动，以确保水泥行业长期能更加繁荣和安全。